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by Judith Rueff Liberation (Paris), 2 January 2006 [translated by Catherine Beach for UKL #377]
What is the basis of the Russian-Ukrainian difference?It isn't just about multiplying by three or four times the price of gas that Ukrainians pay. The negotiations that were just interrupted by the Russians concern both the volume and prices charged to Ukrainians for Russian gas as well as the transit prices charged to the Russians by Ukraine. This is why, in my opinion, the Russians are playing an extortion game that is both deplorable and dangerous. They claim that they are the first to worry about energy security for the G8 in St-Petersburg, whereas in reality, they are playing with Ukrainian, Hungarian, Polish and maybe even Western European security. Are Russians motivated for purely economic reasons?Everything is political, even if the heads of Gazprom, who very close to the Kremlin, are claiming the contrary. Several signs point to this fact: negotiations have been going on for six months, and yet the crisis comes in winter, during the largest period of European consumption, barely three months from the Ukrainian legislative elections and also very little time after an accord between Russia and Germany for the construction of a pipeline under the Baltic Sea that will avoid the transit of gas through Ukraine. Another sign: Russians are threatening to severely increase the price of gas for Moldova, a country that recently distanced itself; whereas Belarus, a regime very close to Moscow, has just signed another contract with an advantageous price of 46.8 dollars per 1000m.. with the increase of gas prices, the Russian budget has never been so good. Does Moscow want to punish Ukraine, who has tried to improve ties to the West since the "Orange Revolution" at the end of 2004?In the beginning, the group in power experienced a sense of rage at being surprised by the Orange Revolution. Since then, Russia has been trying to take its revenge. Let's not forget that Putin himself came to campaign in Ukraine against the opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko. Even now, the Russian President refutes the legitimacy of the Ukrainian President, hoping that the regime will fall. Ukraine has entered a beleaguered period since the resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (in September), and Moscow profited from the event by using its energy card, hoping for a return to power of the old team to Kyev during the legislative elections in March. Can this strategy achieve success?It is very difficult to foresee the consequences this actual crisis will have on Ukrainians, currently going through a period of disenchantment a year after the regime change. It is clear that the Russians are taking advantage of this. They also hope to portray Ukraine as an unreliable partner in the eyes of the West. This is a short-sighted policy that threatens to come back to haunt them, since Ukrainians will do all in their power to enhance their energy autonomy. Russia can not afford to be responsible for an energy crisis in Europe. Putin's team is leading an underhanded combat, one which can have negative effects on Ukraine for a short time. This is why it is essential that the European partners not give up Ukrainians in order to assure Gazprom's good graces. |
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